Overview of Modelling Analysis
As part of Carbon-Free Europe's (CFE) first analysis in 2022, CFE modelled five potential pathways for the EU and UK to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The Core pathway is the least constrained, allowing countries to use all available clean energy technologies and assuming high levels of energy efficiency and electrification. This is the most feasible, cost-effective pathway to net-zero. The other four pathways are designed to explore how different policy and implementation constraints impact the route to carbon-neutrality. To learn more about the other pathways and our full 2022 analysis, visit www.carbonfreeeurope.org/modelling/archive/2022.
Today’s Energy System
In 2019, 78% of the UK’s energy supply came from fossil fuels (3.5% from coal, 39.5% from gas, and 35% from oil). Nuclear energy supplied 8% and renewable energy sources, including biofuels, provided 12%. The most emissions come from transportation (27% of total GHG emissions), followed by residential and commercial buildings (17%), electricity (13%), and industry (10%). 2019 is a good baseline year to understand Europe’s long term energy demand and supply since impacts from the pandemic have heavily skewed data from 2020-2021. 2019 is also the most recent year for which final Eurostat energy balance data is available.
Key Takeaways: The Core Pathway in 2050
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The UK’s most feasible and cost-effective pathway to net-zero is the Core pathway, which includes the use of every available clean energy technology including nuclear energy and carbon capture. In this pathway, by 2050, the UK’s estimated electricity mix is 51% wind, 9% solar, 39% nuclear, and 1% gas. The Core pathway requires 770 billion pounds of investment through 2050 in key technologies including electricity generation and storage, clean fuels, direct air capture, and heat pumps.
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In a carbon-free economy, the UK becomes a key energy producer, building more nuclear power and offshore wind than any EU country. The UK expands its electric generation capacity by an additional 59 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear power and 96 GW of offshore wind in the Core pathway.
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Abundant domestic nuclear power and offshore wind enables the UK to become a leading producer of low-carbon hydrogen. In the Core pathway, the UK becomes the second largest producer of high-temperature electrolysis and fourth largest producer of low-temperature electrolysis supported by availability of offshore wind and nuclear heat.
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The UK becomes an essential exporter of electricity and hydrogen to mainland Europe. To deliver this energy, the UK becomes the second largest constructor of new electricity transmission (39 GW of new connections to other countries in the Core pathway) and the tenth largest builder of new hydrogen pipelines (13 GW in the Core pathway up to 44 GW in constrained pathways).
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Carbon capture is used to reduce emissions from cement production and yield negative emissions in biofuel production. Captured carbon is sequestered in geologic formations. The UK stores up to 71 million tons of CO2 in geologic storage reservoirs annually by 2050. In the Core pathway, UK is the fourth largest storer of captured carbon, storing 36 million tons.
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The UK ramps up biofuel production to replace fossil fuels primarily in aviation and chemical manufacturing. By 2050, the UK becomes the sixth largest producer of biofuels, producing 6600 kilotons of oil equivalent (ktoe) in the Core pathway.
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The UK sees the second largest reduction in consumer gas demand and third largest in consumer oil demand. This is because the UK is a relatively large consumer of oil and gas among EU + UK countries today, and can leverage a diverse array of clean energy resources to displace fossil fuels by 2050.1
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Electricity demand will increase by 240%. As the UK electrifies buildings, transport and parts of industry, and begins using electricity to produce hydrogen, electricity demand is modeled to increase by approximately 240% in 2050.
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The UK will need to ramp up the pace of renewables deployment by as much as 3.5 times to decarbonise. From 2011 to 2020, the UK built on average 4 gigawatts of renewables a year. To meet demand, the UK will need to build 5-14 gigawatts annually (representing a 125-350% increase).
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The UK can dramatically reduce its dependence on natural gas-fired boilers for space and water heating. Modelling shows natural gas consumption for residential space heating gas boilers can reduce from 14,445 ktoe to 8,235 ktoe by 2035, and further reduce to 2,275 ktoe by 2040—a 75% reduction in this timeframe.
Key Energy Metrics
The table below shows key energy system metrics from the Core pathway, which is the most cost-effective, feasible trajectory to net-zero. The table also shows a range for each metric. That range is generated by comparing the Core pathway to four other modelled pathways designed to evaluate specific constraints.
The Slow Demand Transformation pathway imposes delays in electrification of surface transportation, heating, and industry. The 100% Renewables pathway relies strictly on renewables, phases out nuclear power, and prevents carbon capture and sequestration. The Limited Renewable Siting pathway restricts the deployment of wind and solar to reflect land-use and siting constraints. The Domestic Preference pathway prioritises domestic energy supplies and reduces transborder transmission lines and pipelines.
We provide a range for each metric in the table to indicate which model results are highly sensitive to constraints, and which are consistent across all scenarios such that they represent low-regret strategies. We also show the UK’s rank in each metric relative to all EU + UK countries, to identify segments of the decarbonised energy economy where the UK has an opportunity to lead.
