Overview of Modelling Analysis
As part of Carbon-Free Europe's (CFE) first analysis in 2022, CFE modelled five potential pathways for the EU and UK to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The Core pathway is the least constrained, allowing countries to use all available clean energy technologies and assuming high levels of energy efficiency and electrification. This is the most feasible, cost-effective pathway to net-zero. The other four pathways are designed to explore how different policy and implementation constraints impact the route to carbon-neutrality. To learn more about the other pathways and our full 2022 analysis, visit www.carbonfreeeurope.org/modelling/archive/2022.
Today’s Energy System
In 2019, 25% of Sweden’s energy supply came from fossil fuels (4% from coal, 2% from gas, and 19% from oil). Nuclear energy supplied 32% and renewable energy sources, including biomass, provided 38%. When looking at Sweden’s emissions that same year, 17% came from the energy sector (primarily electricity generation), 43% from industry, 32% from transport, and 5% from residential and commercial buildings. 2019 is a good baseline year to understand Europe’s long-term energy demand and supply since impacts from the pandemic have heavily skewed data from 2020-2021. 2019 is also the most recent year for which Eurostat data is available.
Key Takeaways: The Core Pathway in 2050
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Sweden’s most feasible and cost-effective pathway to net-zero is the Core pathway, which uses every available clean energy technology, including nuclear power and carbon capture. In this pathway, Sweden’s estimated electricity mix by 2050 is 49% wind, 22% nuclear, 6% existing biomass, 21% existing hydropower, and less than 1% gas. The Core pathway requires €170 billion of investment through 2050 in key technologies, including electricity generation and storage, clean fuels, direct air capture, and heat pumps.
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By 2050 in the Core pathway, Sweden adds the 5th most onshore wind and 8th most offshore wind of any EU + UK country. Sweden adds 30 GW of new onshore wind capacity and 12 GW of new offshore wind.
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Sweden builds 23 GW of new electric transmission capacity, the 9th most of any EU + UK country. However, if transborder transmission is constrained (as see in the Domestic Preference pathway) Sweden only builds 6 GW of new transmission capacity.
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Through 2050, Sweden maintains its existing 8 GW of nuclear power and adds 1 GW of new advanced nuclear electric capacity. Most of Sweden’s existing nuclear is used for electricity generation, while the country’s additional advanced nuclear buildout provides both electricity and direct heat for hydrogen production.
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Sweden is the 3rd largest hydrogen producer via high-temperature electrolysis among EU + UK countries, and the 6th largest producer of hydrogen overall. The Core scenario anticipates Sweden producing 1,200 kilotonnes of high-temperature electrolysis hydrogen and also adds 4 GW of new pipelines to transport hydrogen by 2050.
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Sweden becomes the 5th largest e-fuels producer in the EU + UK, supplying both liquid hydrocarbons and ammonia. As a large producer of e-fuels, Sweden is expected to produce 2,800 kilotonnes of oil equivalent (ktoe) in 2050 in the Core scenario.
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Among EU + UK countries, Sweden has the 8th largest dry biomass supply in 2050. In the Core scenario, Sweden’s woody biomass is used primarily for electricity generation, steam, and pulp and paper industries (consistent with its use today). However, when demand-side electrification is constrained (in the Slow Demand Transformation pathway), Sweden uses biomass to produce 2,000 ktoe of liquid fuels.
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Sweden does not develop any geologic CO2 sequestration capacity. Instead of sequestering carbon, Sweden utilizes captured CO2 (from cement production) in e-fuels production.
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Sweden will likely need to increase the rate of renewables deployment over the coming decades to reach net-zero by 2050. From 2011 to 2020, Sweden built an average of 1 GW of renewable energy per year. To meet demand, Sweden will need to build between 0.6 to 2 GW annually through 2050, with most of our scenarios (including the Core scenario) requiring more than 1 GW per year.
Key Energy Metrics
The table below shows key energy system metrics from the Core pathway, which is the most cost-effective, feasible trajectory to net-zero. The table also shows a range for each metric. That range is generated by comparing the Core pathway to four other modelled pathways designed to evaluate specific constraints.
The Slow Demand Transformation pathway imposes delays in electrification of surface transportation, heating, and industry. The 100% Renewables pathway relies strictly on renewables, phases out nuclear power, and prevents carbon capture and sequestration. The Limited Renewable Siting pathway restricts the deployment of wind and solar to reflect land-use and siting constraints. The Domestic Preference pathway prioritises domestic energy supplies and reduces transborder transmission lines and pipelines.
We provide a range for each metric in the table to indicate which model results are highly sensitive to constraints, and which are consistent across all scenarios such that they represent low-regret strategies. We also show Sweden’s rank in each metric relative to all EU + UK countries, to identify segments of the decarbonised energy economy where Sweden has an opportunity to lead.
