Overview of Modelling Analysis
As part of Carbon-Free Europe's (CFE) first analysis in 2022, CFE modelled five potential pathways for the EU and UK to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The Core pathway is the least constrained, allowing countries to use all available clean energy technologies and assuming high levels of energy efficiency and electrification. This is the most feasible, cost-effective pathway to net-zero. The other four pathways are designed to explore how different policy and implementation constraints impact the route to carbon-neutrality. To learn more about the other pathways and our full 2022 analysis, visit www.carbonfreeeurope.org/modelling/archive/2022.
Today's Energy System
In 2019, 73% of Romania’s energy supply came from fossil fuels (15% from coal, 28% from gas, and 29% from oil). Nuclear energy supplied 9% and renewable energy sources, including biomass, provided 18%. When looking at Romania’s emissions that same year, 26% came from the energy sector (primarily electricity generation), 41% from industry, 17% from transport, and 11% from residential and commercial buildings. 2019 is a good baseline year to understand Europe’s long-term energy demand and supply since impacts from the pandemic have heavily skewed data from 2020-2021. 2019 is also the most recent year for which Eurostat data is available.
Key Takeaways: The Core Pathway in 2050
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Romania’s most feasible and cost-effective pathway to net-zero is the Core pathway, which uses every available clean energy technology, including nuclear power and carbon capture. In this pathway, Romania’s estimated electricity mix by 2050 is 12% wind, 21% solar, 59% nuclear, 9% existing hydropower, and less than 1% gas. The Core pathway requires €238 billion of investment through 2050 in key technologies, including electricity generation and storage, clean fuels, direct air capture, and heat pumps.
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In a carbon-free economy, Romania becomes a key nuclear energy producer, building the sixth most nuclear power of any EU + UK country and exporting electricity to its neighbors. Romania adds 12 gigawatts (GW) of new nuclear capacity by 2050 in the Core pathway.
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By 2050 in the Core pathway, Romania adds the 11th most solar and the 12th most offshore wind of any EU + UK country. Romania adds 18 GW of new solar photovoltaic capacity, 3 GW of offshore wind capacity, and 4 GW of onshore wind.
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Romania adds 9 GW of electric transmission by 2050 in the Core pathway. Even when transborder electric transmission is constrained (in the Domestic Preference pathway), Romania builds 5 GW of new transmission, more than double its 2 GW of existing transmission capacity in 2019.
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Romania becomes the 7th largest producer of biofuels in the EU and UK, leveraging the country’s large biomass resource (the 5th largest among EU + UK countries). In the Core pathway, Romania produces 6,600 kilotonnes of oil equivalent.
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Romania leads the EU + UK in hydrogen production via bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), producing 600 kilotonnes annually in 2050 in the Core pathway. In some constrained scenarios, high demand for drop-in fuels leads Romania to divert biomass to synthetic hydrocarbons rather than hydrogen.
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By 2050, Romania sequesters 38 million tons of CO2 annually, the 4th most of any EU + UK country. The sequestered CO2 is captured from biofuel and cement production and from direct air capture.
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Romania will need to increase the rate of renewables deployment over the coming decades to reach net-zero by 2050. From 2011 to 2020, Romania built on average 400 MW of renewable energy per year. To meet demand, Romania will need to build between 600 MW to 3 GW annually through 2050, a 1.5 to 8x increase.
Key Energy Metrics
The table below shows key energy system metrics from the Core pathway, which is the most cost-effective, feasible trajectory to net-zero. The table also shows a range for each metric. That range is generated by comparing the Core pathway to four other modelled pathways designed to evaluate specific constraints.
The Slow Demand Transformation pathway imposes delays in the electrification of surface transportation, heating, and industry. The 100% Renewables pathway relies strictly on renewables, phases out nuclear power, and prevents carbon capture and sequestration. The Limited Renewable Siting pathway restricts the deployment of wind and solar to reflect land-use and siting constraints. The Domestic Preference pathway prioritises domestic energy supplies and reduces transborder transmission lines and pipelines.
We provide a range for each metric in the table to indicate which model results are highly sensitive to constraints and which are consistent across all scenarios such that they represent low-regret strategies. We also show Romania’s rank in each metric relative to all EU + UK countries to identify segments of the decarbonised energy economy where Romania has an opportunity to lead.
