Overview of Modelling Analysis
As part of Carbon-Free Europe's (CFE) first analysis in 2022, CFE modelled five potential pathways for the EU and UK to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The Core pathway is the least constrained, allowing countries to use all available clean energy technologies and assuming high levels of energy efficiency and electrification. This is the most feasible, cost-effective pathway to net-zero. The other four pathways are designed to explore how different policy and implementation constraints impact the route to carbon-neutrality. To learn more about the other pathways and our full 2022 analysis, visit www.carbonfreeeurope.org/modelling/archive/2022.
Today’s Energy System
In 2019, 89% of Poland’s energy supply came from fossil fuels (43% from coal, 17% from gas, and 30% from oil). Renewable energy sources, including biomass, provided 9%. When looking at Poland’s emissions that same year, 44% came from the energy sector (primarily electricity generation), 23% from industry, 17% from transport, and 13% from residential and commercial buildings. 2019 is a good baseline year to understand Europe’s long-term energy demand and supply since impacts from the pandemic have heavily skewed data from 2020-2021. 2019 is also the most recent year for which Eurostat data is available.
Key Takeaways: The Core Pathway in 2050
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Poland’s most feasible and cost-effective pathway to net-zero is the Core pathway, which uses every available clean energy technology, including nuclear power and carbon capture. In this pathway, Poland’s estimated electricity mix by 2050 is 42% wind, 42% nuclear, 15% solar, and less than 1% gas. The Core pathway requires €490 billion of investment through 2050 in key technologies, including electricity generation and storage, clean fuels, direct air capture, and heat pumps.
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By 2050 in the Core pathway, Poland adds the 4th most wind and the 5th most solar of any EU + UK country. Our model estimates that Poland will need to add 29 GW of new offshore wind capacity, 30 GW of new onshore wind, and 53 GW of new solar to reach net-zero.
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Poland adds 31 GW of new nuclear electric capacity, the 2nd most of any EU + UK country. Poland does not have any nuclear power plants operating today, but it becomes an important exporter of nuclear power to neighboring countries by 2050.
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Poland is the 5th largest hydrogen producer via high-temperature electrolysis among the EU + UK countries. By leveraging its nuclear energy and renewable potential, Poland annually produces 644 kilotonnes of hydrogen via high temperature electrolysis by 2050. Poland also produces an additional 245 kilotonnes of hydrogen with low temperature electrolysis, the 11th most of any EU + UK country.
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In the Core pathway, Poland ranks 6th for new transmission capacity and 7th for new hydrogen pipelines among the EU + UK region. Poland builds 25 GW of new electric transmission and 21 GW of new hydrogen pipelines to neighboring countries. Much of Poland’s additional electric transmission and pipeline capacity exports to Germany. Its largest hydrogen pipeline imports hydrogen from Lithuania, another large producer.
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Poland produces over 10,000 ktoe of biofuel, the 4th most among EU + UK countries. Poland’s biofuels industry leverages its supply of biomass, the 3rd largest of any EU + UK country. The country’s biofuel production is primarily dedicated to liquid hydrocarbon fuels in the Core pathway.
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Poland provides 12 million tons of geologic CO2 sequestration annually in 2050, the 7th most among EU + UK countries. CO2 is captured in Poland almost entirely from cement production in the Core pathway with a limited amount also captured from biofuels production.
Key Energy Metrics
The table below shows key energy system metrics from the Core pathway, which is the most cost-effective, feasible trajectory to net-zero. The table also shows a range for each metric. That range is generated by comparing the Core pathway to four other modelled pathways designed to evaluate specific constraints.
The Slow Demand Transformation pathway imposes delays in electrification of surface transportation, heating, and industry. The 100% Renewables pathway relies strictly on renewables, phases out nuclear power, and prevents carbon capture and sequestration. The Limited Renewable Siting pathway restricts the deployment of wind and solar to reflect land-use and siting constraints. The Domestic Preference pathway prioritises domestic energy supplies and reduces transborder transmission lines and pipelines.
We provide a range for each metric in the table to indicate which model results are highly sensitive to constraints, and which are consistent across all scenarios such that they represent low-regret strategies. We also show Poland’s rank in each metric relative to all EU + UK countries, to identify segments of the decarbonised energy economy where Poland has an opportunity to lead.
