Overview of Modelling Analysis
As part of Carbon-Free Europe's (CFE) first analysis in 2022, CFE modelled five potential pathways for the EU and UK to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The Core pathway is the least constrained, allowing countries to use all available clean energy technologies and assuming high levels of energy efficiency and electrification. This is the most feasible, cost-effective pathway to net-zero. The other four pathways are designed to explore how different policy and implementation constraints impact the route to carbon-neutrality. To learn more about the other pathways and our full 2022 analysis, visit www.carbonfreeeurope.org/modelling/archive/2022.
Today’s Energy System
In 2019, 77% of Germany’s energy supply came from fossil fuels (18% from coal, 25% from gas, and 34% from oil). Nuclear energy supplied 7% and renewable energy sources, including biomass, provided 15%. 32% of Germany’s emissions in 2019 came from the energy sector (primarily electricity generation), 31% from industry, 20% from transport, and 16% from residential and commercial buildings. 2019 is a good baseline year to understand Europe’s long-term energy demand and supply since impacts from the pandemic have heavily skewed data from 2020-2021. 2019 is also the most recent year for which Eurostat data is available.
Key Takeaways: The Core Pathway in 2050
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Germany’s most feasible and cost-effective pathway to net-zero is the Core pathway, which includes the use of carbon capture and every available clean energy technology except for nuclear power. In this pathway, by 2050, Germany’s estimated electricity mix is 34% wind, 32% solar, 20% geothermal, and 10% gas. The Core pathway requires 845 billion Euros of investment through 2050 in key technologies including electricity generation and storage, clean fuels, direct air capture, and heat pumps. Our modelling excludes nuclear power from Germany’s future domestic energy supply based on the country’s current nuclear energy policy.
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By 2050 in the Core pathway, Germany adds 214 GW of renewable electricity capacity. This includes 148 GW of solar photovoltaic energy, the 3rd most of any EU + UK country; 17 GW of offshore wind and 25 GW of onshore wind through 2050, the 7th and 8th most (respectively); and 24 GW of geothermal energy. Germany is the only EU + UK country to add more than 1 GW of geothermal capacity in the Core scenario.
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Germany adds up to 53 GW of battery storage, the most of any EU + UK country. Germany adds at least 40 GW of battery storage in all scenarios except when nuclear power is entirely phased out across Europe (in the 100% Renewables pathway). Under the constraints of the 100% Renewables pathway, Germany has less access to electricity imports and builds more geothermal, reducing demand for energy storage to 24 GW. This happens despite the rest of Europe adding 50% more battery storage capacity compared to the Core scenario.
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Germany is a significant importer of electricity in 2050, building 63 GW of new electricity transmission by 2050. This transmission addition is the largest of any EU + UK country and more than triples existing import/export lines.
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Germany’s decarbonised economy consumes large quantities of hydrogen, most of which is imported via new pipelines. Germany builds 23 GW of new hydrogen pipelines by 2050, the 6th most among EU + UK countries. Germany produces 5 kilotonnes of hydrogen annually by 2050, the 27th most among EU + UK countries. All hydrogen produced domestically uses low-temperature electrolysis, as zero-carbon high-temperature electrolysis requires nuclear heat.
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By 2050, Germany sees the largest reduction in end-use gas and oil demand of any EU + UK country.1 This large reduction in demand is driven primarily by Germany’s high oil and gas demand in 2019.
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In the Core pathway, Germany is a large producer of biofuels and e-fuels, producing nearly 14,000 and over 2,000 kilotons of oil equivalent (ktoe), respectively. Germany is the 2nd largest producer of biofuels and the 8th largest producer of e-fuels.
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By 2050, Germany sequesters 59 million tons of CO2 annually in geologic formations. This is the most geologic sequestration of any EU + UK country. The sequestered CO2 is captured from production of biofuels and cement.
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Germany’s high historical pace of renewables deployment will need to be sustained through 2050 to reach net-zero. From 2011 to 2020, Germany built on average 7 gigawatts of renewable energy per year. To meet demand, Germany will need to continue to build between 5 and 7 gigawatts annually through 2050.
Key Energy Metrics
The table below shows key energy system metrics from the Core pathway, which is the most cost-effective, feasible trajectory to net-zero. The table also shows a range for each metric. That range is generated by comparing the Core pathway to four other modelled pathways designed to evaluate specific constraints.
The Slow Demand Transformation pathway imposes delays in electrification of surface transportation, heating, and industry. The 100% Renewables pathway relies strictly on renewables, phases out nuclear power, and prevents carbon capture and sequestration. The Limited Renewable Siting pathway restricts the deployment of wind and solar to reflect land-use and siting constraints. The Domestic Preference pathway prioritises domestic energy supplies and reduces transborder transmission lines and pipelines.
We provide a range for each metric in the table to indicate which model results are highly sensitive to constraints, and which are consistent across all scenarios such that they represent low-regret strategies. We also show Germany’s rank in each metric relative to all EU + UK countries, to identify segments of the decarbonised energy economy where Germany has an opportunity to lead.
