Overview of Modelling Analysis
As part of Carbon-Free Europe's (CFE) first analysis in 2022, CFE modelled five potential pathways for the EU and UK to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The Core pathway is the least constrained, allowing countries to use all available clean energy technologies and assuming high levels of energy efficiency and electrification. This is the most feasible, cost-effective pathway to net-zero. The other four pathways are designed to explore how different policy and implementation constraints impact the route to carbon-neutrality. To learn more about the other pathways and our full 2022 analysis, visit www.carbonfreeeurope.org/modelling/archive/2022.
Today’s Energy System
In 2019, 38% of Finland’s energy supply came from fossil fuels (7% from coal, 7% from gas, and 24% from oil). Nuclear energy supplied 18%, and renewable energy sources, including biomass, provided 37%. When looking at Finland’s emissions that same year, 31% came from the energy sector (primarily electricity generation), 35% from industry, 21% from transport, and 9% from residential and commercial buildings. 2019 is a good baseline year to understand Europe’s long-term energy demand and supply since impacts from the pandemic have heavily skewed data from 2020-2021. 2019 is also the most recent year for which Eurostat data is available.
Key Takeaways: The Core Pathway in 2050
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Finland’s most feasible and cost-effective pathway to net-zero is the Core pathway, which uses every available clean energy technology, including nuclear power and carbon capture. In this pathway, by 2050, Finland’s estimated electricity mix is 62% wind, 22% nuclear, 10% existing hydro, and less than 1% gas. The Core pathway requires €116 billion of investment through 2050 in key technologies, including electricity generation and storage, clean fuels, direct air capture, and heat pumps.
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By 2050 in the Core pathway, Finland adds 29 GW of new onshore wind capacity. This capacity addition is the 7th largest made by any EU + UK country.
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Finland adds 2 GW of new nuclear electric capacity by 2050, the 10th most added by any EU + UK country. Finland’s 3 GW of existing nuclear also remain in service through 2050.
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Finland’s new nuclear capacity is used not only to generate electricity but also to produce hydrogen via high-temperature electrolysis. Finland produces over 500 kilotonnes of high-temperature electrolytic hydrogen in 2050, the 6th most of any EU + UK country.
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Finland builds 10 GW of new electric transmission capacity and 2 GW of new hydrogen pipelines by 2050. New electric transmission capacity ranges as low as 0 GW (when transborder transmission is constrained in the Domestic Preference pathway) and as high as 14 GW (in the 100% Renewables pathway).
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The Netherlands builds 31 GW of new electric transmission capacity, the 5th most of any EU + UK country. However, if transborder transmission is constrained, as seen in the Domestic Preference pathway, new transmission capacity is limited to 5 GW.
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Finland has a significant biomass supply: 20 million dry tons in 2050, the 9th most of any EU + UK country. That biomass, primarily from wood and forest residues, is mostly consumed domestically in existing industrial and heat applications through 2050. Finland does not become a large biofuel producer, ranking 26th among EU + UK countries in total biofuel production.
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Finland will need to increase the rate of renewables deployment over the coming decades to reach net-zero by 2050. From 2011 to 2020, Finland built an average of 400 MW of renewable energy per year. To meet demand, the country will need to build between 600 to 1500 MW annually through 2050, increasing the historic build rate by a factor of 1.5 to 4x.
Key Energy Metrics
The table below shows key energy system metrics from the Core pathway, which is the most cost-effective, feasible trajectory to net-zero. The table also shows a range for each metric. That range is generated by comparing the Core pathway to four other modelled pathways designed to evaluate specific constraints.
The Slow Demand Transformation pathway imposes delays in electrification of surface transportation, heating, and industry. The 100% Renewables pathway relies strictly on renewables, phases out nuclear power, and prevents carbon capture and sequestration. The Limited Renewable Siting pathway restricts the deployment of wind and solar to reflect land-use and siting constraints. The Domestic Preference pathway prioritises domestic energy supplies and reduces transborder transmission lines and pipelines.
We provide a range for each metric in the table to indicate which model results are highly sensitive to constraints, and which are consistent across all scenarios such that they represent low-regret strategies. We also show Finland’s rank in each metric relative to all EU + UK countries, to identify segments of the decarbonised energy economy where Finland has an opportunity to lead.
