Annual Decarbonisation Perspective 2024

Carbon-Free Europe partners with Evolved Energy Research to produce the Annual Decarbonisation Perspective (ADP), an energy systems analysis that provides crucial insights into Europe’s progress toward carbon neutrality. Now in its third year, this study is a valuable tool for policymakers, civil society, energy experts, and industry leaders seeking to understand the tradeoffs of different strategies to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. 

The ADP uses energy models to explore a wide range of net-zero scenarios with different assumptions. Results show what clean energy technologies need to be deployed and when, the investments and infrastructure needed to support these technologies, and the impact of the energy transition on land-use and costs for consumers. Our European Union-wide findings can be used to inform the next legislative mandate, not by showing the impact of current policy, but rather by comparing current policy with analysis of what is required to stay on track with emissions reduction targets. We also provide results for each Member State and the United Kingdom, so local policymakers and stakeholders have access to the latest data and energy modelling to inform their own path to decarbonisation. 

This year, for the first time, we include new visual maps to provide a more granular picture of local infrastructure needs and opportunities. These maps demonstrate the significant infrastructure requirements and land-use tradeoffs of different pathways to reach net-zero and underscore the importance of a technology-inclusive approach. 

The study also evaluates the implications of the EU’s 2030 targets and informs discussions on the upcoming 2040 targets. Our findings highlight the risk of an overly prescriptive policy framework, which lacks the flexibility necessary for effective implementation at national or local levels. 

Finally, this year, we compared our net-zero scenarios to a baseline scenario to evaluate the full costs of decarbonisation. Our analysis shows that Europe can achieve full decarbonisation while reducing costs for households, with the right policy decisions. 

Later this year, CFE will release a follow-on analysis on the economic and jobs implications of these net-zero pathways. Stay tuned!